Italian Governor Warns: Soon Hospitals Won’t ‘Be Able to Help’ Coronavirus Patients
What is not being said in the media, is that both Italy and Iran have signed on to the Chinese One Belt and One Road initiative. For a long period (years), Italy has had a sizable number of Chinese leather workers in Northern Italy making shoes and handbags. Today that number is around 100,000. So, supposing many went home for Chinese New Year (January 25th) and then came back to Italy to work? We will let you connect the dots.
"The Italian governor of Lombardy is warning citizens to “stay home” because soon hospitals “will no longer be able to help those who get sick” with the Chinese coronavirus."
Read moreThis Is The 'Terrifying' New Research That Sparked Trump's Aggressive Change Of Tone On Virus
The new research (pdf), led by epidemiologist Dr. Neil Ferguson and published Monday by the Imperial College of London, shows that merely acting to slow rather than completely stop the spread of COVID-19 would "still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over."
Unless you have had Public Health Courses recently, you will learn a lot from this paper.
Read moreDr. Fauci’s Mysterious Math – The Quantifying Today Reflects Where We Were A Week Ago – Today Cannot Be Quantified Until Next Week
The commenter, Zekness, is a Canadian with a lot of knowledge of Medicine and Public health. We are posting his comments because of the risks that are not currently talked about. We might also make the comment that we have heard that the current test need to have a certain viral load in the body in order for the test to work. The current guidelines seem to indicate that the test need to be give 7-days after the onset of symptoms in order not to reflect a false negative. We added the bolding for emphasis. Thank you, Sundance and Zekness.
"zekness says:
the current PCR test is very sensitive to SARS, MERS and COVID-19…it was designed to be sensitive to all three, but only those….and it makes sense that this test was re-tooled in this way (which helps to explain why the US did NOT follow the WHO guidance in developing the field test….it did at first, but then realized…no…the test will need to be re-tooled for a much higher sensitive geared primarily for the COVID-19 virus, but ALSO for SARS and MERS…(because we want to know as early as possible in the field that any of these three may be in the wild…)
in the lab, where these tests are sent for confirmation/falsification examinations….is where the contagion is actually identified….
Dr. Fauci is talking “around” this aspect but the science and method is on solid footing.
The lab will establish exactly what genomic profile is at play..and it will confirm the field PCR test result…or not.
for the front line, the immediate actions are to take the PCR test result of positive-positive and start quarantine and begin contact tracing..and further testing…they do not wait for the lab results….but one has to realize, currently this model is based totally on people reporting feeling ill.
the reality is this model does not work effectively against a virus that has a long incubation period, mild symptoms or none at all realize a situation where many people are just not going to report illness…and become super-spreaders. and the days during incubation where no symptoms exist, they are shedding and transmitting.
then you compound this problem with the reality that testing is not feasible for “not sick” surveillance….random sampling yes….but that is like dragging a net in an ocean, catching 4 fish and assuming that will somehow give you a good idea about how many fish are in the ocean….it is a very problematic and bad way to steer pandemic control measures, or to count fish!
then you have the problem that PCR tests are very sensitive (accurate) but calibrated to only these three c-virus and only the current known strains….we know this SARS-Cov-19 will eventually mutate….it probably already has beyond the L and S known strains…will the PCR test be sensitive in it current formula to register precision sensitivity…? we have to assume it will not, based on former experiences….but if we are not taking “not ill” random sample AT SCALE…we will never know until it far too late to get those PCR tests re-tooled..
any way you cut it…we are always going to be looking back in time….and those delays will result in an always late reactionary effort…this will not express the goal of limiting the and trajectory of this pandemic.
the ONLY way to satisfy a goal of limiting this pandemic is to begin a very far reaching set of restrictions right now….travel bans domestically….shut down all non-essential travel and transmission routes….and hope and pray that citizens start taking action to self isolate and do all of the things they can to limit social contact.
possible? probably not…sigh..
just stating how this pandemic can be controlled in a far more effective way.
the downside…yes, the economy and people get distressed..
the upside…far fewer people are dead
Commentary: Five Questions About the Coronavirus Testing Answered
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The main symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, are fever, dry cough and shortness of breath. These look a lot like the flu and the common cold, so it takes a physician to determine if testing for the virus is necessary.
Initially, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended testing only people with symptoms and who had potentially been exposed to the virus. But to the surprise of public health officials, several of the first people in the U.S. who tested positive for the virus had no obvious exposure. This development suggested that the virus was being transmitted locally, meaning it was spreading from person to person easily and/or that people may have been transmitting the virus without experiencing serious symptoms." Thank You, Minnesota Sun.
Read moreCommentary: Globalization Helped Export China’s Coronavirus
"n the current environment, something not seen in America in living memory, the fear and panic of the Chinese coronavirus make it near impossible to look ahead. But while everyone who can is working on the “here and now,” it is vital that we think about how this situation came to be, what we can learn from it, and how the crisis we are now experiencing can be prevented in the future." Thank You, Minnesota Sun.
Read morePence: We’re Suspending Travel from U.K. and Ireland – Americans ‘Can Come Home’
"During a press conference on Saturday, Vice President Mike Pence announced that travel from the United Kingdom and Ireland will be suspended at midnight on Monday, but Americans and legal residents of the U.S. in those countries will be allowed to return to the United States."
Read moreVirus Cases Spread Across Africa, Nations Prepare for More
"Africa is seeing a steady spread of the coronavirus across the continent, with four new countries confirming cases on Saturday, so that 23 of Africa’s 54 countries have COVID-19 patients."
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Coronavirus: Spain Limits Public Movement, Shuts Down Bars, Restaurants, Hotels, and More
" Spain´s government is set to announce Saturday that it is placing tight restrictions on movements and closing restaurants and other establishments in the nation of 46 million people as part of a two-week state of emergency to fight the sharp rise in coronavirus infections."
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Health Expert: 60% of Britons Need to Catch Coronavirus to Develop ‘Herd Immunity’
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The government’s chief scientific adviser has said that 60 per cent of Britons need to catch coronavirus to develop “herd immunity” because the virus could return like the winter flu.
“We think this virus is likely to be one that comes year on year, becomes like a seasonal virus,” Sir Patrick Valance said.
“Communities will become immune to it and that’s going to be an important part of controlling this longer term. About 60 per cent is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity,” he told Sky News on Friday."
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