This blog's author has done very nice modeling of COVID-19 on a Country basis. We have known and read David Merkel for more than 20-years. He is a statistician and has been an actuary and a bond trader and manager of bond departments for insurance companies. His analysis is very similar to what your state health department uses and what the CDC uses to model epidemic progression in a population. Highly recommended reading.Read more
Mar4th: "Stay Indoors" - Italy Begins Nationwide Quarantine For Seniors As Germany Declares Outbreak "A Global Pandemic": Live Updates
As we reported last night, Tuesday marked a major shift in the coronavirus outbreak: For the first time, more deaths were reported outside China than inside. And already on Wednesday, we've seen some unfortunate firsts: Iraq reported its first death after the virus leaked across the border from Iran.
The EU's decision not to close borders and impose travel restrictions has come back to bite it: Just a few minutes ago, the European Union confirmed the first case of the virus at EU offices in Brussels. It appears to be tied to the European Defense Agency.Read more
1MAR; Sunday Update: Italian Death Toll Surges To 34 As Confirmed Cases Jump 42% Overnight; Six Suspected Cases Isolated In NYC: Virus Updates
"If there's one thing we've learned since the coronavirus outbreak went global in January, it's that a lot can change in 24 hours. Seemingly overnight, the viral hysteria has apparently arrived in the US, alongside the news of the first virus-related death in Washington State.Read more
"The news helped rattle investor confidence, sending futures into the red as US stocks looked set to open in the red on Wednesday, building on four days of losses.
The virus has now spread to every continent except for Antarctica. Brazil's Health Ministry said a man has tested positive for the coronavirus in an initial test. If it's confirmed in a second test, it will be the first case in South America."Read more
Tuesday Update: South Korean Crisis-Response Coordinator Commits Suicide As Cases Near 1,000; 11 Deaths: Live Updates
Update (0650ET): It's not even 7 am in the US, and it looks like a new outbreak is beginning in Central Europe.
Local news agencies report that Croatia has confirmed its first case, while the Austrian Province of Tyrol has confirmed two cases.
In South Korea, meanwhile, officials have just confirmed the 11th coronavirus-linked death, a Mongolian man in his mid-30s who had a preexisting liver condition.Read more