“Andrei Martyanov just released a very VERY good video.  He really covers it all.  So, today, I leave you in his care, he explains it all very well.  I have nothing to add.”

Link to map in the first comment.

“Today, rather than comment on the latest developments on the ground, I want to step back and revisit a few basic, but I believe absolutely fundamental aspects of the Russian military operation in not only the Donbass, but the entire Ukraine.”

First, the biggest news of the day: the city of Izium fell to the Russian forces.

Second, for all practical purposes that cauldron was about 80% closed “by fire” for a few days already, this time it will be closed by Russian/LDNR forces meeting each other somewhere in that big no mans land between Pavlograd and Donetsk.

Third, The encirclement (cauldron) of Odessa is beginning.

Putin – “ If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility”

“First, the now obligatory map of the situation as of yesterday evening: According to am internal Ukrainian document which has been circulating on the Runet, apparently a leak from the Ukie security council, which admits 40% of the Ukrainian territory is under Russian control and over 75% of the Ukie military was destroyed.”

“I think that this map is self-explanatory, especially since the only major change is in that pink box.  What we see here is what looks to me like an envelopment of the city of Odessa and the surrounding towns.  I would also notice that the distance between the Russian forces in Transnistria (Moldovia) is quickly shrinking.”

“Here is a small commentary on what we see in this map:  In red the most recent Russian movements today.  The only major progress is inside the purpose square when Russian forces have penetrated deep in the rear of both Odessa and Kiev.  So I have to wonder – are the planning a strategic cauldron??? Dunno, but I decided to add a black bar to show where we might want to look closer in the coming days.”

“The Ukies are doing two things at the same time: they are blowing up bridges and explaining that they have defeated the Russian attack and are now counter-attacking on all fronts (Note: blowing up bridges is not what a winning force does).”