This blog's author has done very nice modeling of COVID-19 on a Country basis. We have known and read David Merkel for more than 20-years. He is a statistician and has been an actuary and a bond trader and manager of bond departments for insurance companies. His analysis is very similar to what your state health department uses and what the CDC uses to model epidemic progression in a population. Highly recommended reading.

https://alephblog.com/2020/03/25/an-optimistic-assessment-of-covid-19/