“Israel got an early start on vaccinating its population and began offering a third dose of mRNA vaccine in July to the older age group (≥ 60 years). The results from an observational study comparing the clinical outcome of participants who received a third shot to those in the same age group who had received only two shots over the same period clearly indicated that the risk of severe disease dropped by a factor of almost 20.”

There is a prediction at the end of the story.  Recommended 5-minute read.

https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/what-happens-if-israel-fails-the-stress-test